OA26 Will the probabilistic approach be the future for numerical weather predictions?

Convener: Buizza, R.
Co-Convener(s): Toth, Z.
Thursday, 23 April 1998
Lecture Room: M2

Chairperson: Smith, L.A.

• 14:00 REED, D.N.
  The future of practical weather forecasting in an uncertain world (Solicited Paper)
• 14:30 DU, J.; TRACTON, M.S.; TOTH, Z.; JUANG, H.
  Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP/EMC
• 14:45 LEGG, T.P.
  Probability forecasting for the National Meteorological Centre in Bracknell
• 15:00 LANGFJELL, I.; IVERSEN, T.; BARKMEIJER, J.; PALMER, T.
  On ensemble prediction in a limited area
• 15:15 HERSBACH, H.; MUREAU, R.; OPSTEEGH, J.D.; BARKMEIJER, J.
  Application of regional singular vectors to the ensemble prediction system
• 15:30 ZHU, Y.; TOTH, Z.; KALNAY, E.
  Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the NCEP global ensemble
• 15:45 GILMOUR, I.; SMITH, L.A.
  Towards internally consistent ensembles in NWP
• 16:00 HANSEN, J.; SMITH, L.A.; GILMOUR, I.
  Towards better initial conditions: variational assimilation, nonlinear noise reduction, and i-shadowing
• 16:15 BRINI, F.; PASQUERO, C.; TREVISAN, A.
  An economical alternative to four-dimensional variational assimilation
• 16:30 PIRES, C.; VAUTARD, R.
  Comparing long-range, statistical, dynamical and hybrid forecasts in the atmosphere
• 16:45 DOBLAS-REYES, F.J.; DEQUE, M.
  Long-range probabilistic forecasts in multimodel ensembles
• 17:00 Joint Discussion for NP2.1 and OA26
  TOTH, Z.; BUIZZA, R.; TALAGRAND, O.; MULLEN, S.; SMITH, L.
  Open discussion on ensemble forecasting: Where are we and where do we go?

17:30 END OF SESSION
 

OA26 Will the probabilistic approach be the future for numerical weather predictions? - Poster Session

Convener: Buizza, R.
Co-Convener(s): Toth, Z.
Display Time: Monday, 09:00 - Friday, 13:00
Authors in Attendance: Thursday, 17:30 - 19:00
Poster Area: LES MUSES

• OA326 YUSHKOV, V.P.
  Will the probabilistic approach be the future for predictions?
• OA327 SILVA, E.D.
  Using nonparametric statistics to measure centrality of rainfall distribution
• OA328 CRAIG, G.C.
  Ensemble properties of cumulus convection - some inferences from statistical mechanics