NP2 Predictability & time series analysis
.1 Quantifying predictability - Poster Session

Convener: Toth, Z.
Display Time: Monday, 09:00 - Friday, 13:00
Authors in Attendance: Wednesday, 17:00 - 19:00
Poster Area: AGORA 3 - NP

Chairperson: Aberson, S.D.

• NP023 GUTIERREZ, C.; ORTIZBEVIA, M.J.; RUIZDEELVIRA, A.
  Global climate signals and the Spanish rainfall
• NP024 GUTIERREZCEBALLOS, C.; ORTIZBEVIA, M.J.
  Predictability of the North Atlantic anomalous circulation
• NP025 ABERSON, S.D.; TULEYA, R.E.; BENDER, M.A.
  Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks and intensity

NP2 Predictability & time series analysis
.1 Quantifying predictability
 
Convener: Toth, Z.
Thursday, 23 April 1998 Lecture Room: M2

Chairperson: Talagrand, O.

• 08:30 VANNITSEM, S.
  Predictability, Lyapunov vectors and weather regimes in a T21L3 quasi-geostrophic model (Solicited Paper)
• 09:00 BONTEMPS, B.; KÄLLEN, E.
  On the relationship between singular vectors and breeding modes, a comparative study with a simple model
• 09:15 BUIZZA, R.; PALMER, T.N.
  Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction
• 09:30 IVANOV, L.M.; MARGOLINA, T.M.
  On calculation of the probability distribution functions for statistical ensembles with the large numbers of freedom degrees
• 09:45 D'ANDREA, F.; VAUTARD, R.
  Flow dependent parametrization of tendency error on a simplified model
• 10:00 TALAGRAND, O.; VAUTARD, R.; STRAUSS, B.
  Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems
• 10:15 FRISON, T.W.
  Quanifying predictability with Lyapunov exponents

10:30 BREAK
 
Chairperson: Mullen, S.L.

• 11:00 DROEGEMEIER, K.K.; XUE, M.; ZONG, J.; HOU, D.; WANG, D.; PARK, S.K.; CARR, F.H.
  The practical predictability of deep convective storms: use of real time operational tests and detailed case studies to assess the role of scale interaction in forecast uncertainty
• 11:15 LAHOZ, W.A.
  Stratospheric predictability in the UKMO Unified Model
  11:30 IDE, K.; GHIL, M.
  Hybrid dynamic-statistical forecasting and forecast skill
• 11:45 GHIL, M.; IDE, K.
  Low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and long-range forecasting (Solicited Paper)
• 12:15 PERESAN, A.; ROTWAIN, I.M.; PANZA, G.F.
  Evaluation of the stability of algorithm CN with respect to randaom errors in magnitude: central Italy
• 12:30 MULLEN, S.L.; WANDISHIN, M.; BROOKS, H.E.; STENSRUD, D.J.; DOWELL III, C.A.
  Quantitative precipitation forecasting: predictability limits and the use of ensemble forecasts
• 12:45 ABERSON, S.D.
  Targeting observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts

13:00 END OF SUB-SESSION