EGS XXVI General Assembly, Nice, France, March 2001

NP6. Quantifying predictability (co-sponsored by OA): - Oral Programme

Convener(s): Toth, Z.
Co-Convener(s): Allen, M.R.; Buizza, R.; Sutton, R.T.
Co- Sponsorship:

Wednesday, 28 March 2001
Lecture Room: A3.1

Chairperson: Toth, Z.

00:00
General/boundary/model uncertainty

Wednesday, 28 March 2001
Lecture Room: A3.1

Chairperson: Toth, Z.

08:30
 PATIL, D.S.; KALNAY, E.; HUNT, B.R.; YORKE, J.A.; OTT, E.
Using Characteristics of Bred Vectors to identify Errors in Forecasts (Solicited Paper)

09:00
 SMITH, L.A.
On Climate Model Products: Whereof must we remain silent?

09:15
 NIETO FERREIRA, R.; SUAREZ, M.
Two-way interacting regional climate model study of the predictability of South American climate variability

09:30
 PENA, M.; KALNAY, E.; CAI, M.
Statistics of coupled ocean and atmosphere intraseasonal/seasonal anomalies in Reanalysis and AMIP data

09:45
 ROJAS, M.; SETH, A.
Towards the development of a nested regional climate model for seasonal prediction for South America.

10:00
 GERSHUNOV, A.; CAYAN, D.; REICHLER, T.; ROADS, J.
Seasonal Predictability of Regional Hydrometeorology

10:15
 ARRITT, R.W.; YANG, Z.
Ensemble regional climate simulations using perturbations to physical parameterizations

10:30
 BREAK
Chairperson: Buizza, R.

00:00
Analysis/targeting
Chairperson: Buizza, R.

11:00
 VAN LEEUWEN, P.J.
A truly variance minimizing ensemble filter and smoother (Solicited Paper)

11:30
 HAMILL, T.; SNYDER, C.; WHITAKER, J.
Filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter

11:45
 CORAZZA, M.; KALNAY, E.; GYONGYOSI, A.Z.; MORSS, R.E.
Use of the breeding technique to study the analysis error

12:00
 MUSACCHIO, S.; BOFFETTA, G.
Predictability of the inverse energy cascade

12:15
 DOERENBECHER, A.; BERGOT, T.; BOUTTIER, F.
Sensitivity to observations: a new tool for observation targeting

12:30
 BEARE, R.J.; THORPE, A.J.; WHITE, A.A.
PV sensitivity maps and the predictability of cyclones

12:45
 KIVMAN, G.
Sequential parameter estimation for stochastic systems

13:00
 LUNCH
Chairperson: Allen, M.R.

00:00
Initial value uncertainty
Chairperson: Allen, M.R.

14:00
 COLLINS, M.; ALLEN, M.; FRAME, D.; STAINFORTH, D.; STOTT, P.; SUTTON, R.; WILSON, C.
Climate Predictability: The Initial Value Problem. (Solicited Paper)

14:30
 SINHA, B.; COLLINS, M.
Potential Decadal Predictability of the Thermohaline Circulation.

14:45
 Timmermann, A.; Pasmanter, R.
Statistical Determination of ENSO's most and least predictable states

15:00
 CAI, M.; KALNAY, E.; TOTH, Z.
The applications of Bred Vectors in the Cane-Zebiak coupled atmosphere-ocean model

15:15
 RIVIERE, G.; HUA, B.L.; KLEIN, P.
An analytical approach to the predictability problem in quasigeostrophic flows

15:30
 GILMOUR, I.; MULLEN, S.L.; BAUMHEFNER, D.P.
Isolation of nonlinearities which limit predictability

15:45
 LOPEZ, P.
On the inclusion of 3D cloud water and precipitation variables in adjoint calculations

16:00
 BREAK
Chairperson: Talagrand, O.

16:30
 ZHANG, F.; SNYDER, C.; ROTUNNO, R.
The influence of moist convection on the predictability of larger scales in a limited-area atmospheric model

16:45
 LI, Y.; COHN, S.E.; RIISHOJGAARD, L.P.; TOTH, Z.
A simplified model for predicting forecast error variances

17:00
 MU, M.; WANG, J.
The First Kind of Predictability and Nonlinear Fastest Growing Perturbation

17:15
 HALL, N.
Sensitivity of Extended to Seasonal Predictions to a Midlatitude SST Anomaly using a Simple GCM

00:00
Ensembles

17:30
 NICOLAU, J.
Short range ensemble forecasting at Meteo-France: a preliminary study (Solicited Paper)

18:00
 END OF PART I
18:00-20:00 Poster Viewing

Thursday, 29 March 2001
Lecture Room: A3.1

Chairperson: Sutton, R.T.

08:30
 FICCA, G.; MARROCU, M.; BUIZZA, R.; CHESSA, P.; MALGUZZI, P.; BUZZI, A.
Boleps: A limited area probabilistic prediction system of small-scale severe rainfall events

08:45
 MARSIGLI, C.; MONTANI, A.; NEROZZI, F.; PACCAGNELLA, T.
Predictability studies with the limited--area ensemble prediction system during the MAP period

09:00
 BUIZZA, R.; RICHARDSON, D.S.; PALMER, T.N.
The new high-resolution ECMWF EPS

09:15
 PELLERIN, G.; HOUTEKAMER, P.; GIRARD, C.; LEFAIVRE, L.
Increasing the Horizontal Resolution of Ensemble Forecasts at CMC

09:30
 SZUNYOGH, I.; TOTH, Z.
The effect of horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts

09:45
 HAGEDORN, R.; DOBLAS-REYES, F.; PALMER, T.
Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction

10:00
 REICHLER, T.J.; ROADS, J.O.; KANAMITSU, M.
Seasonal climate predictability in a general circulation model

10:15
 WOOD, A.W.; MAURER, E.; KUMAR, A.; LETTENMAIER, D.P.
Long Lead Hydrologic Forecasting Using Climate Model Ensembles

10:30
 BREAK
Chairperson: Pellerin, G.

00:00
Verification
Chairperson: Pellerin, G.

11:00
 MULLEN, S.: BUIZZA, R.
The impact of resolution and ensemble size on precipitation forecasts by the ECMWF EPS (Solicited Paper)

11:30
 PELLY, J.L.; HOSKINS, B.J.
How well does the ECMWF EPS predict blocking?

11:45
 TALAGRAND, O.; CANDILLE, G.
Evaluation of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for probabilistic prediction of scalar variables

12:00
 TOTH, Z.; MUSZTACS, K.; ZHU, Y.; WOBUS, R.
An evaluation of ensemble based forecast probability distributions

12:15
Working Group Meetings
Chairperson: Hamill, T.

00:00
Applications
Chairperson: Hamill, T.

14:30
 Mylne, K.R.; Legg, T.P.
Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (Solicited Paper)

15:00
 SCHAAKE, J.; WELLES, E.; MULLUSKY, M.; SEO, D.
Development of precipitation ensemble foarecasts for hydrologic prediction

15:15
 MONTANI, A.; BUIZZA, R.; MARSIGLI, C.; NEROZZI, F.; PACCAGNELLA, T.
Performance of global and limited--area ensemble forecasts for a flash flood

15:30
 BECKER, B.
The Monthly Outlook, a commercial Product.