EGS XXVI General Assembly, Nice, France, March 2001

NP6. Quantifying predictability (co-sponsored by OA):

Event Information

The predictability of the time evolution of chaotic systems is limited in time due to uncertain initial and/or boundary conditions and inaccuracies in model formulation. The rate and time limit at which forecast skill and thus predictability is lost also depend on the system and its trajectory segment studied. To maximize their utility, forecasts need to be made in the form of probability distributions, instead of a traditional single trajectory. In this session we invite papers addressing theoretical and methodological aspects of predictability on all time scales in different geophysical sciences, with an emphasis on atmospheric and oceanic systems. This year papers on the design, interpretation and use of probabilistic forecasts are solicited in particular, including the area of severe weather forecasting, business and other real life applications. Other relevant topics include, but are not limited to ensemble forecasting, sensitivity studies, adaptive observations, and advanced data assimilation techniques.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers

Co-Sponsorship