EGS XXVI General Assembly, Nice, France, March 2001

HSC2. Rainfall runoff modelling for design flood estimation:

Event Information

Estimation of the design floods for large hydraulic structures such as dams is often based on transforming design storms into design hydrographs. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility of assessing a range of process controls on floods which strengthens the engineering judgement. However, this approach is associated with a range of uncertainties including the choice of design storms, antecedent soil moisture conditions, model parameters, the regional patterns of process controls and/or model parameters, as well as uncertainties in the mapping of rainfall probabilities to runoff probabilities. This session will attempt to shed light on these issues. Specifically the methodological problems of the use of rainfall runoff models for design discharge calculations, problems of using rainfall runoff models on a regional scale, and the quantification of the possible impacts of changes in land use, land cover, and soil surface conditions on design floods will be discussed. Comparisons of rainfall-runoff concepts with purely statistical approaches will be encouraged. The consistency of design flood values from different sources and the uncertainties associated with the respective design discharge calculation methods will also be a focus of this session. Both general methodological contributions and case studies in different regions of the world are solicited. Issues associated with software development for design flood estimation will also be of interest in this session.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers

Co-Sponsorship