EGS XXV General Assembly, Nice, France, April 2000

NP3. Y2K benchmarks in prediction of nonlinear systems from data:

Event Information

Data based empirical prediction models hold a important niche in geophysics, with many novel nonlinear analysis techniques having been successfully applied to geophysical data sets in the past 10 years. This session will provide a forum for contrasting predictions (and estimates of predictability) from distinct modeling paradigms evaluated on the same data and, through blind forecasts, will obtain initial benchmarks for all competitive nonlinear forecast strategies available in the year 2000. Blind forecasts will be made possible by the availability of data sets on the internet, without the corresponding verification data. The session concludes the first phase of a prediction competition, for which data sets, benchmarks and forecast targets will be provided interactively on the internet. In addition to contributions which analyze the data sets, those which discuss different methods of model verification and differing data based modeling strategies are welcome. addition to contributions which analyze the data sets. More information and data can be found at y2k.maths.ox.ac.uk.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers

Co-Sponsorship