NP2	Nonlinear timeseries, chaos and predictability
		.1	Quantifying predictability: theoretical aspects I (co-sponsored by OA)

Convener: Toth, Z.
Co-Convener(s): Allen, M.R.; Buizza, R.
Wednesday, 21 April 1999
Lecture Room: Jan Steenzaal
Chairperson: Houtekamer, P.L.

14:30	BOFFETTA, G.; CELANI, A.; CRISANTI, A.; VULPIANI, A.
		Quantifying predictability in turbulence (solicited paper)

15:00	WEI, M.; FREDERIKSEN, J.
		S.H. predictability and the roles of Lyapunov and singular vectors

15:20	CHOME, F.
		The performance of a simple limited-area weather forecasting
		model: statistics and predictability

15:40	LOHMANN, G.
		Dynamics and predictability of Stommel's box model: a phase space
		perspective with implications for decadal climate variability

16:00	HERSBACH, H.; MUREAU, R.; OPSTEEGH, J.D.; BARKMEIJER, J.
		The effect of nonlinearity on the short-range evolution
		of the probability density function of the atmospheric flow

16:20	BREAK

Chairperson: Stephenson, D.B.

17:00	SMITH, L.A.; ORRELL, D.J.; HANSEN, J.A.; GILMOUR, I.
		Towards divining the aim of ensemble forecasts
		given imperfect models (solicited paper)

17:30	HAAS, P.
		Simultating model error through a stochastic trajectory

17:50	BARKMEIJER, J.; MAHFOUF, J.-F.; BUIZZA, R.; PALMER, T.N.
		Tropical singular vectors in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

18:10	EHRENDORFER, M.
		An exact Kalman filter and ensemble prediction

18:30	HOUTEKAMER, P.L.; MITCHELL, H.L.
		A sequential ensemble Kalman filter

18:50	END OF PART I


NP2	Nonlinear timeseries, chaos and predictability
		.1	Quantifying predictability: theoretical aspects II (co-sponsored by OA)

Convener: Toth, Z.
Co-Convener(s): Allen, M.R.; Buizza, R.
Thursday, 22 April 1999
Lecture Room: Jan Steenzaal
Chairperson: Ehrendorfer, M.

08:50	SWANSON, K.
		Analysis error estimation and forecast error growth

09:10	ZHU, Y.; TODLING, R.; COHN, S.E.
		Revisiting filters and smoothers for strongly nonlinear dynamics

09:30	HANSEN, J.A.; SMITH, L.A.
		New methods of ensemble construction and assessment

09:50	HAMILL, T.M.; SNYDER, C.; MORSS, R.E.
		Comparison of bred, singular vector, and perturbed
		observation ensemble forecasts

10:10	STEPHENSON, D.B.; DOBLAS-REYES, F.J.
		Statistical analysis of ensemble forecasts

10:30	END OF SUB-SESSION