NH8	Seismic hazard evaluation, precursory phenomena and reliability of predictions

Convener: Contadakis, M.E.
Co-Convener(s): Madariaga, R.; Roca, A.; Zschau, J.
Wednesday, 21 April 1999
Lecture Room: Prins Willem-Alezander Foyer 2
Co-sponsored by: Dept. of Surveying and Geodesy, AUTH; GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam
Chairperson: Contadakis, M.E.

09:00	PAPADOPOULOS, G.A.
	The problem of seismic potential assessment: the EU ASPELEA
	roject as an example (Solicited Paper)

09:30	PLESSA, A.; PAPADOPOULOS, G.A.
	Evaluation of Corinthos Gulf earthquake data for seismic hazard assessment

09:45	SCHENK, V.; SCHENKOVA, Z.; KOTTNAUER, P.
	Earthquake hazard assessment for two ASPELEA test sites:
	he Corinthos Gulf (central Greece) and Kresna region (SW Bulgaria)

10:00	VAN GELDER, P.H.A.J.M.; LUNGU, D.
	Multivariate statistical analysis of subcrustal earthquakes of the Vrancea source (Poster)

10:05	MÖRNER, N.-AX.
	Paleoseismic records for reliable long-term seismic hazard assessment

10:20	PERUZZA, L.; REBEZ, A.; SLEJKO, D.
	Seismic hazard map at the free field for NE Italy

10:35	BREAK

Chairperson: Zschau, J.

11:00	O'CONNELL, D.R.H.
	Influence of random-correlated crustal velocity fluctuations on the
	scaling and dispersion of near-source peak ground motions

11:15	MUSSON, R.M.W.
	Practical constraints on the development of seismic hazard methodology

11:30	DI ZIO, M.; ROTONDI, R.
	Bayesian nonparametric interevent time density estimation and
	detection of seismicity phases

11:45	BALASSANIAN, S.
	Earthquake prediction or current seismic hazard assessment?

12:00	MULARGIA, F.
	Efficient and unbiased retrospective estimates of time
	association (Solicited Paper)

12:30	LUNCH & POSTERS

Chairperson: Madariaga, R.

14:30	PERESAN, A.; PANZA, G.F.
	The capability of CN algorithm to detect systematic changes
	in the input catalogue

14:45	PERESAN, A.; ROTWAIN, I.M.; PANZA, G.F.
	Testing the reliability of CN earthquake predictions with respect
	to random errors in magnitude: the case of Italy

15:00	GRECU, V.; PAPADOPOULOS, G.; NACU, V.
	The analysis of seismicity using geostatistics. Application
	on Greek seismic areas

15:15	CHOULIARAS, G.; WYSS, M.; DRAKATOS, G.; STAVRAKAKIS, G.N.
	Investigating seismic quiescence in Greece

15:30	CHOULIARAS, G.; MINFENG, L.; DRAKATOS, G.;
		WEIJUN, W.; YONG, C.; STAVRAKAKIS, G.
	Investigating seismic quiescence in China

15:45	GERSTENECKER, C.; LIEBETANZ, M.
	Statistic analysis of the seismolap-value: significance and reliability

16:00	SMIRNOVA, N.; TROYAN, V.; HAYAKAWA, M.;
		PETERSON, TH.; KOPYTENKO, YU.
	The complex approach for searching the earthquake precursory signatures

16:15	STEFANSSON, R.; ARNODOTTIR, T.; BODVARSSON, R.;
		GUNNARSSON, G.B.; ROGNVALDSSON, S.TH.; SLUNGA, R.
	Real time research to provide warnings

16:30	BREAK

Chairperson: Roca, A.

17:00	CONTADAKIS, M.E.; ASTERIADIS, G.
	Research for preseismic phenomena on the underground water
	level and temperature in Pieria, northern Greece

17:15	NACU, V.; GRECU, V.; MATECIUC, D.
	The computing of the deformation parameters using GPS
	measurements in Vrancea - Romania area (Poster)

17:20	SYLVANDER, M.
	Identifying an asperity through 3-D mapping of the
	frequency-magnitude relationship (Poster)

17:25	SCHENK, V.; SCHENKOVA, Z.; KOTTNAUER, P.
	Seismic potential estimates of main earthquake zones of the Corinthos Gulf
	(central Greece) and the Kresna region (SW Bulgaria) (Poster)

17:30	VAN ECK, T.; DINEVA, S.; ROTONDI, R.; VAN DER MEIJDE, M.
	Preliminary seismic hazard analysis for the Kresna region (SW Bulgaria) (Poster)

17:35	TIMIOVSKA, L.
	Prediction in seismic hazard using macroseismic data banks (Poster)

17:40	OUTKIN, V.I.; KRIVACHEEV, S.V.; MAKSIMOV, G.A.;
		KOVALENKO, V.A.
	Consideration of physical processes dynamics in rock during
	earthquake preparation (Poster)

17:45	LI, Z.; ZHOU, S.; XU, Z.; WU,Y.
	Analysis of rock fracture associated with seismic deformation (Poster)

17:50	LEVIN, B.W.; SASOROVA, E.V.
	Low frequency foregoing seismical signal as a regional sign of an
	earthquake preparation (Poster)

17:55	KUSTOWSKI, B.
	The dominant trends in epicentre migration with the use of noparametric
	density estimation (Poster)

18:00	KACHAKHIDZE, N.
	Chain relationship of the earthquakes for Turkey and Greece
	by migration waves (Poster)

18:05	KILADZE, R.; KACHAKHIDZE, M.; RAMISHVILI, G.; KACHAKHIDZE, N.; KUKHIANIDZE, V.
	The study of the distribution of planets as a triggering factor
	for large earthquakes (Poster)

18:10	END OF SESSION